Kenny Rogers sang, “You’ve’ got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ’em, know when to walk away, and know when to run”. He was singing about cards, but the same rules apply to dice, and all games of chance; possibly for all of life. Humans and animals alike must place their bets and take their chances.
How dreary. Isn’t there a better way?
Blaise Pascal, and his pal, Pierre de Fermat, thought a better way of dealing with chance might be found through mathematics. In the mid-1600s, they worked-out the mathematical odds for a particular game of dice.
Their sensible ideas about mathematical probability are still at work today.
Pierre de Fermat has been forgotten by all but historians. I don’t know why. The name of Blaise Pascal lives on as the father of probability theory.
The mathematics have been refined and extended over the centuries. The basics remain the same.
The mathematics of probability have gone far beyond gambling with dice. Everything from space flights to actuarial tables are guided by Pascal’s original insight.
That said, probability is not certainty.
It is a better bet.
Betting doesn’t interest me. I have no enthusiasm for games of chance or for games in general. I am mystified by the energy and passion so many put into them. Life allows me no escape from taking chances. I’d rather it didn’t.
I certainly wouldn’t take chances for fun.
Probability is another matter. I’d like to know as well as any other creature about what unknown something or other is coming around the corner. Should I flee, fight, or take cover? Being able to assign likelihood of outcome would be very useful.
Unfortunately, it’s not reliably possible. The odds predicted by probability help, but unlikely things still happen.
Sometimes inscrutable powers like fate or destiny intervene. Rational people say there’s no such thing. Events beg to differ. Irrational events aren’t as common as rational events, but they happen. Gamblers occasionally roll snake-eyes ten times in a row.
Rational thinking dismisses this as only a matter of luck? If rational thinkers accept luck as a factor, then why don’t they accept ideas like fate or destiny as well?
Realists are uncomfortable with mystery. They explain all mysterious events as random events, not worth thinking about. If the dice sometimes roll with unexpected consistency they dismiss it as luck and stop thinking.
What realists call chance may more truly be a power beyond human knowing.
Pascal thought his ideas about probability could help pierce the veil. They did, but not absolutely. The absolute power Pascal believed in was God. He defended his belief with a gambler’s logic.
Pascal’s logic:
Premise - The existence of God is unprovable; therefore belief is a gamble.
Inference - Believers have a 100% chance of eternal life in a world beyond.
Inference - Disbelievers have a 100% chance of never getting to a world beyond.
Conclusion - Bet on God!
I think Pascal’s bet is more realistic than any secular realist can imagine.
The ways of God are inscrutably beyond our understanding. Faith in God’s guidance is back-up for our fumbling figuring. Probability is better than guessing but It’s not enough.
Some will disagree.
They’ll think what they will.
Roll the dice.